Red Shirts & Sad Times

I am all for the democratic process. The ballot should be decisive and in my opinion it alone should settle the government of any country as much here as in the UK or China or The Philippines. Yesterday I was explaining to Tony that our mature western democracies have clearly separated legislative, executive and judicial functions, theoretically keeping each other in check with the assistance of a free press; here the fourth estate is not the free press but rather the military which plays a much greater role in the general society and political life of Thailand than elsewhere. This can be seen from walking around: there is a military bank, there are huge military hospitals, they even have their own golf courses and sports clubs. Ratchaburi itself is a garrison town so there is a strong and visible presence here. So what I hear you say?!

The point is the military will intervene here and in my estimation most Thai people supported their decision to ouster Thaksin. I am not sure they were comfortable about this but I think they went with it because they understood our dear friend was out of control. I think it is also likely the military itself did this reluctantly as their top brass clearly would prefer a democratic process. Over a year ago the Yellow Shirts, the supporters of this position, took to the streets in popular protest and occupied the airport. AS I commented at that time the Yellows were largely middle class professionals

The Red Shirts are now seeking the immediate dissolution of the Thai parliament and the resignation of Prime Minister Abhisit. At one level they have a compelling case as Abhisit has undeniably been imposed by the military and Thaksin, the oustered PM, was elected by a democratic process. However Thaksin is now a criminal at large with a prison sentence hanging over him. One could say these charges are political but unfortunately they are based on indisputable facts and I believe they represent the true nature of this dangerous man.

The Red Shirts are undoubtedly a Thaksin front. Their demand for immediate democracy will soon be forgotten when Mr Shinawatra returns to power. Check Mr Thaksin's love of democracy, in particular try Amnesty International. Unfortunately Mr T appears to have little regard for the value of human life to say the least. The Reds are reputed to being paid 500 baht a day. If there is any truth in this then you may be able to understand why an immediate election might not be the obvious answer: unfortunately an election here can be rigged.

Now pan forward to this weekend when somewhere in the region of 20 people have been killed on the streets of Bangkok. It is clear the Red Shirts were ready because they retaliated with petrol bombs and grenades. These don't simply appear like rain. In fact as information emerges it seems the army came off worst and in fact retreated.

I don't think most people have an appetite for this stuff. I doubt that there will be a quick solution but I also doubt that there is going to be a sudden escalation in trouble. The impasse will continue. Fortunately the trouble appears to be restricted to specific areas but it has a devastating effect on the commercial life of Bangkok. I am not sure Bangkok's business community will thank Mr T. Yes these are sad strange times.