The Mob,Pattaya & Anarchy

I am sorry to say that recent events in the Holy City of Pattaya have caused huge damage to Thai PM Abhisit Vejjahijiva. The TV footage was ugly, mobs generally are, and I guess we have to be grateful it did not spiral hopelessly out of control. However Khun Abhisit's reputation is in tatters as he is now being portrayed as a laughing stock, inept and definitely not in control. The cancellation of the ASEAN summit, due to the mob, is a major victory for the Redshirts and unfortunately may encourage them to regroup and come back for more after the Songkran break.

The cancellation of the summit is also a huge blow to Thai prestige. It would seem that if adequate security and leadership had been in place then this need not have happened. I understand the summit hotel was on a cliff top and theoretically easy to defend. it seems the mob quite literally walked in.

What embarrassment for the leaders of China and other countries having to be evacuated from the conference hotel by helicopter amidst the declaration of a state of emergency.

Loss of face is a big gig in this country, it justifies retaliation, reaction and response and my concern is that it may lead to over reaction, some brutal bloodshed on the government's part. No doubt a few senior policemen will be fired but I worry that as Abhisit is increasingly portrayed as a lame duck and laughing stocking that he may decide to show that he really is in charge.

As a general rule people here in most situations go out of their way to avoid confrontation. You can see this on the roads where people generally only use their horns to greet each other and there is a give and take approach! But when face has been lost, some insult sustained, then beware!

Of course one of the effects of inappropriate over reaction would be to broaden the appeal of the Redshirt cause.

I am happy to report that outside of Pattaya there does not appear to have been any problem. Life goes on as normal. People are in serious holiday mode getting ready to celebrate Songkran.

Of course these events are slaughtering the Thai economy. This should be one of the busiest periods in the year for the Pattaya tourist industry. I hear reports that Khao San in Bangkok is pretty quiet too. Poor old Thailand